US Fed will show its true colours only after next rate increase

Professor Enrico Colombatto

July 29, 2015

US Fed will show its true colours only after next rate increase

Professor Enrico Colombatto

The US Federal Reserve Board has finally made up its mind and will probably tighten monetary policy in the United States before the end of 2015. Will this be real monetary tightening or just a gradual retreat from the previous easy credit approach? read


Sunni states turn to ADF after losing faith in US protective arm

Bernard Siman

July 27, 2015

Sunni states turn to ADF after losing faith in US protective arm

Bernard Siman

The creation of an Arab Defence Force (ADF) marks the emergence of a Saudi-led coalition ready to fight the twin threats of Iran and Islamic State. Whether the new grouping will prove a regional bulwark for endangered Sunni regimes following the US’s disengagement from the Middle East will depend on how ADF operations fare in Yemen and, probably, Libya. read


Professor Dr Jaime Pinto

July 24, 2015

President Buhari`s strategy to save Nigeria

Professor Dr Jaime Pinto

Nigeria is the economic powerhouse of Africa benefiting from significant oil revenue and a rapidly developing non-oil sector. However, recently elected President Muhammadu Buhari faces considerable problems in the form of Boko Haram insurgency, unequally distributed wealth and hard-wired corruption. In order to deliver his election promises, he will need to tackle these issues. read


Geopolitics
India builds on its defence links with Israel

Pramit Pal Chaudhuri

July 15, 2015

India builds on its defence links with Israel

Pramit Pal Chaudhuri

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi could add the missing link to bilateral relations with Israel with a high-level visit in 2015. Israel already plays a key role as a supplier of high-tech defence equipment to India. Now that relationship is set to flourish along broader economic lines. read


Lisa Curtis

July 14, 2015

Shifting regional security dynamics: Pakistan balances ties with Saudi Arabia and Iran

Lisa Curtis

Pakistan is gearing up for new regional security dynamics that will inevitably follow the withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan. In addition to solidifying historical ties with China, Islamabad is seeking to maintain relations with long-time Gulf ally, Saudi Arabia, while courting the increasingly influential regional power Iran, but balancing between the two rival nations will likely prove difficult. read


Teresa Nogueira Pinto

July 13, 2015

Africa's investment and business challenges

Teresa Nogueira Pinto

Over the next 10 years, economic growth in Africa will be driven by the continent`s large and increasingly urban population, an emerging middle class which creates a burgeoning consumer market, improved macroeconomic policies and regional integration. Africa will remain one of the most attractive regions for international investors. But whether the continent rises or falls will be determined by the quality of its leaders. read


Economics
China’s 'new normal' showing first signs of strain

July 23, 2015

China’s 'new normal' showing first signs of strain

For the past 30 years in China economic growth has been king, an unofficial religion in a country where the governing Communist Party disdains any faith other than itself. After decades of double-digit growth, expansion has now slowed to seven per cent per year, according to the government, or considerably less, if one listens to its critics. Whatever the number, the key issue is how well China’s leadership is managing the transition to the post-boom era. read


Professor Dr Michael Wohlgemuth

July 22, 2015

Imagining the EU without the UK

Professor Dr Michael Wohlgemuth

free access With eyes fixed on Greece, Europe’s politicians and media are ignoring a weighter economic and geopolitical threat - ‘Brexit’. The United Kingdom is the European Union’s second-largest economy and a military and political heavyweight; it is also the world’s oldest parliamentary democracy and an ardent promoter of free markets and decentralisation. What would the EU look like without the UK? Who would lose the most economically and politically? read


Defence & Security
Russia’s Baltic strategy puts high pressure on Nato

Eka Tkeshelashvili

July 21, 2015

Russia’s Baltic strategy puts high pressure on Nato

Eka Tkeshelashvili

Russia’s annexation of Crimea and its ongoing war against Ukraine have altered the discourse on the Baltic states’ security. For too long, Nato relied on giving an impression of security rather than conducting a meaningful threat assessment for its Baltic Sea flank. Blind trust in the deterrent power of Article 5 of the Washington treaty, combined with the view that Russia was not a threat anymore, contributed to that perception; now that view has been shattered. read


Professor Stefan Hedlund

July 20, 2015

Mariupol in the cross hairs – will Russia escalate?

Professor Stefan Hedlund

The armed conflict in eastern Ukraine has moved into an apparent limbo. The ceasefire agreement that was negotiated at Minsk in February (2015) has broken down. Heavy weapons have been brought back into the prohibited zone and heavy shelling has been resumed. While Russia looks to be gearing up for a full on assault, this may just be a distraction to keep the West guessing while it slowly suffocates Ukraine. read


June 29, 2015

Corruption, the biggest threat to China's military power

A flurry of reports have recently highlighted the rapid modernisation of China’s military and its growing capabilities - both long range and in cyberspace. But many analysts point out that the Chinese army still lags behind other major military powers in many aspects. Rampant corruption, particularly, paints a grim picture, says GIS guest expert Dr Nicola Casarini. Corruption is so deep-seated that, if left unresolved, it is the biggest threat to China’s military power. read


Energy
First steps in Turkmenistan deal to supply gas to Europe

Dr Frank Umbach

July 9, 2015

First steps in Turkmenistan deal to supply gas to Europe

Dr Frank Umbach

The Ukraine conflict has spurred talks between the European Union, Turkmenistan, Turkey and Azerbaijan to cut dependence on Russian gas supplies. An environmental study is underway to build a massive gas pipeline to transport Turkmenistan gas to Europe via Turkey and Azerbaijan. The project would fly in the face of Russian opposition which could still be a stumbling block. read


Professor Dr Stefan Lippert

July 7, 2015

Uncertainty over nuclear reactors in Japan’s 15-year energy strategy

Professor Dr Stefan Lippert

A new energy plan projecting to 2030 leaves major questions over the future of nuclear power in Japan. The Liberal Democrat-led Japanese government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is looking for political capital in the long-term decisions it makes about energy following the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March 2011. read


Dr Carole Nakhle

June 30, 2015

Middle East and North Africa oil producers are facing a new price reality

Dr Carole Nakhle

There is no shortage of news in the media about the negative impact of lower oil prices on the economies of the major Middle East and North Africa region (MENA) oil producers. The dependence on oil makes these economies vulnerable to fluctuations in oil price. But while the oil price is back to ‘normal’, it is not going to be business as usual for these countries. read


Dr Frank Umbach

June 24, 2015

Germany’s energy transition is at crossroads as it faces phasing out coal

Dr Frank Umbach

Environmental pressure to stop using coal-fired power stations and the use of lignite coal in Germany’s electricity generation will damage industry and lose thousands of jobs. It will mean Germany importing more electricity from coal-fired and nuclear power plants from abroad to avoid power cuts. Switching from coal to gas may cut emissions in Germany, but will actually increase global greenhouse gas emissions when shipping and transport are considered. read


Regional Reports
Statements
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